<div class="portada"><div class="meta">Menteia · Menteia Hedge · October 2026 · Confidential</div>

# Business plan

**Menteia Hedge** — AI investment committee: 12 analysts (quantitative and style-based) and a deterministic risk officer that recommend with evidence and explain every decision.</div>


## 1. Summary
Menteia Hedge is an AI investment committee: 5 quantitative models and 7 style agents (value, growth, macro, forensic accounting, news) issue reasoned convictions; a deterministic risk officer applies vetoes and sizes the position. Everything is validated with point-in-time backtests and honest verdicts (including 'NO EDGE'), with daily signals and auditable paper portfolios.

> Invest with evidence. Decide with AI that explains itself.

## 2. Problem
- Retail investors decide on gut feeling or social media tips; they have no access to a professional analysis committee.
- AI tools promise returns without showing evidence or honest validation (biased backtests, no point-in-time data).
- Independent investment advisers (154 registered with CNBV) lack the technology to scale their analysis.

## 3. Solution and product
- Analysts: 5 quantitative models + 7 LLM style agents; each issues a conviction from -1 to +1 with reasoning.
- Risk officer: volatility, VaR and liquidity; hard vetoes (illiquidity, falling knives, debt stress).
- Committee: sizes the position, penalizing disagreement; the AIs never touch the order.
- Validation: backtests with T+1 execution and a DATA VALIDATED / TRADE-OFF / NO EDGE verdict.
- Daily signals via Telegram or webhook; paper funds with a hash-chained record; analyst weights learned from real performance.

### Technology
- FastAPI + JS SPA, SQLite; ~26k lines, 34 test files.
- Configurable OpenAI LLM; free point-in-time data (SEC EDGAR XBRL, 8-K, Form 4, FRED, Yahoo).
- Paper-only execution (Alpaca) with guards and a kill switch.
- Single-use invite access and a demo role.

## 4. Market
| Level | Annual size | How it is calculated |
| --- | --- | --- |
| TAM | US$60 M | 3 M funded investors × US$4k average balance × 0.5% annual fee |
| SAM | US$6 M | 10% of TAM: self-directed digital investors + independent advisers |
| SOM | US$200k | ~800 retail subscribers and 15 advisers in 24–36 months |

**Supporting data:**
- 154 investment advisers registered with CNBV (2023); Fiduz was registered as an AI-based adviser.
- ENIF 2024 (national financial inclusion survey): about 1% of the population invests.
- CetesDirecto: average balance of ~US$4k.

*Market figures are estimates based on public sources; validate them before sending to institutional funds.*

## 5. Target customer
- Self-directed investors trading US stocks from Mexico (GBM, Interactive Brokers).
- Independent investment advisers registered with CNBV (B2B, white-label).
- Future: small family offices and investment clubs.

## 6. Business model and pricing
Freemium: free demo (quant only) → monthly subscription with the full committee, signals and portfolios. B2B white-label license for registered investment advisers.

| Item | Price |
| --- | --- |
| Demo | Free (quant, ≤10 tickers) |
| Pro subscription | US$15 / month |
| Adviser license (white-label) | US$300 / month |
| Signals API | Custom quote |

## 7. Go-to-market strategy
- Content: publish the audited record and analysis case studies (investing community on social media).
- Free demo as the subscription funnel.
- Direct sales to independent advisers registered with CNBV.
- Partnership with a brokerage platform to offer the committee to its clients.

## 8. Competition and positioning
| Alternative | What it offers | Our advantage |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Robo-advisors (Fiduz, Finamex) | Passive portfolios | Active, explainable per-stock analysis |
| Terminals (Bloomberg, Koyfin) | Data without decisions | Committee that recommends and sizes |
| Social media gurus and signals | Opinions without evidence | Honest backtests and auditable record |
| Generic ChatGPT | Answers without verified data | Point-in-time data and deterministic risk |

## 9. Defensible advantages
- Explainable AI: every recommendation shows who said what and why.
- Risk set by auditable rules, not decided by the LLM.
- Statistical honesty: point-in-time data and verdicts that admit when there is no edge.
- Public hash-chained record: results can't be dressed up.

## 10. Traction
- Working MVP at hedge.menteia.com with invite-only access and a public demo.
- 12-analyst committee, risk officer, backtests, daily signals and paper portfolios in production.
- Idea stage, technically validated; no paying users yet.

## 11. Team
| Partner | Role | Stake in Menteia |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Rafael Herrera | CEO / CFO | 33.3% |
| Vladimir Díaz | CTO | 33.3% |
| Francisco D'Angelo | Head of Legal and Compliance | 33.3% |

**Hires funded by the round:**
- AI / ML engineer — from month 1
- Full-stack developer — from month 7
- Compliance officer (50%) — from month 3
- Growth / digital marketing (50%) — from month 7

## 12. Financial projection (24 months)
| Quarter | Revenue | Expenses | Net cash flow | Cumulative cash flow |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Q1 | US$0 | US$30,854 | US$-30,854 | US$-30,854 |
| Q2 | US$0 | US$35,448 | US$-35,448 | US$-66,302 |
| Q3 | US$2,954 | US$55,136 | US$-52,181 | US$-118,483 |
| Q4 | US$6,951 | US$55,352 | US$-48,401 | US$-166,884 |
| Q5 | US$12,208 | US$55,568 | US$-43,359 | US$-210,243 |
| Q6 | US$19,004 | US$55,784 | US$-36,779 | US$-247,022 |
| Q7 | US$28,265 | US$56,000 | US$-27,735 | US$-274,757 |
| Q8 | US$41,172 | US$56,216 | US$-15,044 | US$-289,801 |

- Monthly recurring revenue (MRR) at month 24: **US$15,320** (ARR US$183,838)
- Total 24-month spend: **US$400,355**; cumulative revenue: **US$110,554**
- Breakeven falls after month 24; the round covers the full runway without relying on revenue

**Revenue assumptions:**
- No revenue in the first 6 months (validation and CNBV registration).
- Pro subscription at US$15/month from month 7: 50 initial subscribers, 17% monthly growth (~720 by month 24).
- One new white-label adviser per month from month 9 (cap of 15) at US$300/month.

## 13. The round
- Amount: **US$450,000** for **31%** (pre-money US$1,000,000, post-money US$1,450,000).
- Use of funds detailed in *06_Modelo_Financiero_y_Ronda* (financial model and round).

## 14. Risks and mitigation
| Risk | Mitigation |
| --- | --- |
| Regulatory: recommending investments requires CNBV registration | Register as an investment adviser before charging; educational use until then |
| Intellectual property: built on an open-source project | Own repository; differentiation in data, risk, validation and product |
| Early stage with no paying users | Small SAFE round; validation milestones before scaling spend |
| Signal performance | Publish audited results, including the bad ones |
| Dependence on LLMs and free data | Configurable models; paid data provider at scale |